In this guide
Verdict: Polymarket dominates in terms of trading depth and breadth of available contracts. Kalshi stands out as the sole CFTC-authorised option for American participants. Manifold excels for entertainment-focused forecasting using virtual currency. European traders will find Polymarket accessed through PolyGram to be the optimal choice.
Prediction markets have surged in adoption throughout 2024 and into 2025. This guide examines how the leading platforms stack up against one another.
Polymarket — The Liquidity Leader
| Liquidity | $1.5B+ annual volume. Most substantial order books for geopolitical and blockchain-related contracts |
| Markets | 1,000+ live contracts spanning elections, digital assets, athletics, research, and entertainment |
| Fees | 0% house edge. Typical bid-ask spreads of 1-3 cents |
| Currency | USDC on Polygon (blockchain assets necessary) |
| Access | Worldwide (excluding US). Identity verification required |
| Best for | Professional forecasters seeking competitive edges |
Kalshi — US-Regulated Alternative
Kalshi remains the sole CFTC-authorised prediction exchange available to United States residents. It provides a lawful pathway for American participants who cannot access Polymarket. Trade-offs include a narrower selection of available contracts and regulatory constraints that restrict certain market categories from operating.
Manifold Markets — Social Prediction
Manifold operates using virtual tokens ("mana") instead of actual funds. This platform serves as an excellent venue for honing forecasting abilities and participating in crowd-sourced predictions — though it does not generate real returns. The ecosystem hosts more than 10,000 user-initiated contracts.
Metaculus — Forecasting Platform
Metaculus aggregates numerical predictions from its specialist community. Rather than involving real capital, it emphasises reputation and forecast calibration, making it particularly valuable for those building a track record and those interested in global risk assessment. Its methodologies frequently appear in peer-reviewed studies on forecast quality.
Betfair — The Legacy Exchange
Betfair pioneered the peer-to-peer betting model and continues to process enormous sums across sporting events and political outcomes each year. Strengths include conventional payment methods, regulatory oversight by the FCA, and robust liquidity in sports markets. Drawbacks comprise commission rates ranging from 2–5% on net gains, absence of blockchain-based markets, and comparatively limited election contract coverage relative to Polymarket.
Our Recommendation for 2025
For participants outside the US seeking maximum market depth and contract selection: Polymarket via PolyGram. PolyGram streamlines the blockchain element whilst preserving full access to Polymarket's comprehensive order books. Explore the Polymarket guide to get started. Start trading on PolyGram →