In this guide
Macro-level cryptocurrency prediction markets extend well beyond individual token valuations, encompassing total market capitalisation and the cyclical shifts between asset classes. These venues attract investors focused on portfolio-wide strategies, seeking broad exposure to cryptocurrency movements whilst avoiding concentration in any single asset.
Total Crypto Market Cap Markets
PolyGram pricing snapshot (May 2026):
- Total crypto market cap over $4T in 2026: ~62-68%
- Total crypto market cap over $5T in 2026: ~38-44%
- Total crypto market cap new all-time high in 2026: ~55-62%
Bitcoin Dominance Markets
- BTC dominance over 60% at year-end: ~30-35%
- BTC dominance under 40% at year-end: ~25-30%
When Bitcoin's share of total market value dips beneath 45%, this conventionally marks the onset of altcoin season — prediction markets continuously reflect the likelihood of this threshold being breached.
Altcoin Season Prediction Markets
- Altcoin Season Index over 75 by Q4 2026: ~42-48%
- Ethereum outperforms Bitcoin in 2026: ~40-46%
- Solana market cap surpasses Ethereum in 2026: ~12-16%
Sector Rotation Trading Strategy
Cryptocurrency markets move through recognisable cycles:
- BTC leads (dominance rises, capital flows from alts to BTC)
- ETH follows BTC (Ethereum catches up as BTC consolidates)
- Altcoin season (capital flows from BTC/ETH to smaller caps)
Markets tracking Bitcoin dominance and altcoin season metrics function as forward-looking signals for these rotation phases — enabling traders to position ahead of actual price discovery across the broader ecosystem.
FAQ
- How is "altcoin season" defined for prediction market purposes?
- The CoinMarketCap Altcoin Season Index serves as the standard reference — readings above 75 signify that alternative cryptocurrencies have outpaced Bitcoin's returns over the preceding 90-day window.
- What data is used for total market cap resolution?
- Resolution typically relies on CoinGecko or CoinMarketCap figures for aggregate market capitalisation (excluding stablecoins and certain token categories) as recorded on the contract date at 00:00 UTC.
- Are there layer-1 vs layer-2 sector markets?
- PolyGram introduces targeted sector markets when significant liquidity drivers emerge — L1 competitive dynamics, DeFi total value locked milestones, or NFT trading volume thresholds.