In this guide
Key takeaway: Polymarket operates across most territories outside the United States. As a decentralised blockchain protocol without centralised licensing, its lawfulness hinges on local jurisdiction. The regulatory landscape ranges from outright prohibition (United States) to uncertain territory (UK, EU, Australia) to fully permissive (much of Asia, Africa, Latin America).
Perhaps the most frequently asked question in prediction markets is whether Polymarket operates within legal bounds. The response ultimately depends on your location, how your nation categorises prediction markets (whether as gambling, financial products, or information exchanges), and the vigour with which your authorities enforce restrictions on cross-border platforms.
United States — Explicitly Blocked
Polymarket remains unavailable to American citizens and permanent residents. Following a 2022 enforcement action, Polymarket incurred a $1.4 million penalty from the CFTC (Commodity Futures Trading Commission) for providing event contracts without proper authorisation. The platform subsequently exited the American market and deployed geofencing plus identity verification protocols.
Americans seeking lawful prediction market participation can turn to Kalshi, which secured CFTC clearance in 2020 and continues to broaden its catalogue of available markets.
European Union — Evolving Regulation
The European Union lacks a harmonised regulatory framework for prediction markets. MiCA (Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation) achieved full implementation in 2024 and imposes fresh obligations on cryptocurrency trading venues. Nonetheless, MiCA does not explicitly govern prediction markets as a category.
In reality, Polymarket functions across all EU member states. Each country enforces distinct gambling and financial regulation:
- Germany: Operates in legal ambiguity under GlüStV 2021. Not formally prohibited. Consult our German legal guide
- France: The ANJ (gambling regulator) has not issued specific guidance on prediction markets. Functionally accessible
- Netherlands: The KSA pursues unlicensed gambling operators aggressively. Prediction markets occupy uncertain legal territory
- Spain: The DGOJ oversees online gambling licensing. Polymarket exists in a regulatory gap despite being technically reachable
United Kingdom — Accessible, Unregulated
The Gambling Commission of the UK has neither licensed nor prohibited Polymarket. Users in Britain engage with the platform without impediment. The FCA's stance regarding digital asset prediction markets remains ambiguous. For HMRC tax classification, prediction market earnings typically fall under either capital gains or other income categories.
Canada — Accessible
Canadian federal legislation contains no prohibition on individuals engaging in prediction markets. Provincial gambling statutes concentrate on platform operators rather than end-users. Traders across Canada utilise Polymarket with no legal barriers.
Australia — Grey Zone
Australia's Interactive Gambling Act focuses on operators delivering services to Australian residents without authorisation. Direct participation by individuals in offshore prediction markets is not statutorily criminalised, though the regulatory environment remains unclear.
Asia & Rest of World
Polymarket enjoys broad accessibility throughout South and Southeast Asia, the Middle East, South America, and Africa. Only mainland China (due to comprehensive internet controls) and a small number of nations with comprehensive cryptocurrency prohibitions impose meaningful barriers.
Tax Obligations Are Universal
Even where Polymarket enjoys legal standing in your location, earnings from prediction markets constitute taxable income in nearly all jurisdictions. PolyGram delivers comprehensive transaction history downloads with FIFO cost-basis tracking to streamline tax compliance. Always seek guidance from a qualified tax professional in your region.
This content is educational in nature and should not be construed as legal counsel. Regulatory frameworks evolve continuously. Obtain advice from a qualified legal professional licensed in your jurisdiction prior to engaging in trading.
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