Pronóstico: Grok 4.6 released by 2026?

Platform comparison

Market context

SpaceX's xAI division must release Grok 4.6—or a direct successor variant—to the general public by mid-August 2026 for this contract to settle Yes. The Polymarket conditional token pair currently prices this outcome at zero, meaning traders are assigning negligible probability to a public release within the next twenty months. USDC collateral backs both sides on Polygon, with the Yes token trading at a fraction of a cent whilst the No token reflects near-certainty among active traders.

Historical precedent suggests caution about xAI's release cadence. Grok 1.0 launched in November 2023 as an early-access product for X Premium subscribers, with broader availability following months later. Grok 4.0 arrived in December 2024, roughly thirteen months after Grok 3.0's spring 2023 debut. The progression from 4.0 to 4.5 occurred within that same calendar year, indicating xAI can compress version cycles when prioritising iteration. However, the gap between major numbered releases—particularly the jump from 3.x to 4.0—stretched considerably, suggesting no fixed schedule governs advancement.

Traders monitoring xAI's roadmap should track Elon Musk's public statements on X regarding model development timelines, any announcements from xAI's official channels, and competitive pressure from Anthropic's Claude and OpenAI's o1 series, both of which have accelerated release schedules. The absence of announced Grok 4.6 specifications or development milestones as of early 2025 supports the market's current pricing, though xAI's historical tendency to announce models shortly before or concurrent with release means catalysts could emerge rapidly.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.