Pronóstico: Next Claude Opus released by 2026?

Platform comparison

Market context

Anthropic’s next Claude Opus model is expected to reach general public access before the end of 2026, a timeline that justifies the 96% YES price on Polymarket today. The contract trades on Polygon using USDC, where conditional tokens reflect near-certainty that an officially named Opus variant—such as Opus 4.9 or Opus 5.0—will launch publicly within the settlement window.

Historically, Anthropic has maintained a six-to-eight-week cadence for flagship Opus updates, with Claude Opus 4.8 released on 28 May 2026 as the current general-purpose leader [1][2]. Previous point-bump refreshes like Opus 4.7 and 4.6 followed similar rapid intervals, suggesting the next Opus iteration is likely due in weeks rather than months [3][4]. The suspension of Mythos-class models in June due to export controls did not halt Opus development, reinforcing the pattern that Opus refreshes remain on schedule even when other lines face delays [3].

Traders should monitor Anthropic’s official news channel for announcements of an Opus 4.9 or 5.0 release, particularly given the expectation of movement within weeks [3]. Key catalysts include API updates introducing a new `claude-opus` model identifier, pricing announcements mirroring the $5/$25 per million token structure of recent versions, and integration signals across Amazon Bedrock, Google Vertex AI, or Microsoft Foundry [2][4]. Any public beta access or general availability notice for an explicitly named Opus model will trigger settlement to YES.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.