Pronóstico: When will GPT-5.6 be released?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

GPT-5.6 is not officially released as of 21 June 2026, with no OpenAI announcement, system card, or API page confirming its public availability [1]. Yet on-chain, Polymarket prices a June 30 release at 89–93% probability, reflecting a tight consensus among traders betting on a late-June launch despite the current crowd-implied 0% YES on this specific contract [2][3][7]. The market resolves on the calendar date (ET) when the model becomes generally accessible, including via open beta or ChatGPT, not private access [4].

Historically, OpenAI’s flagship cadence has compressed to roughly six weeks: GPT-5.4 on 5 March, GPT-5.5 on 23 April, and GPT-5.6 now tracking late June [2]. This acceleration stems from technical work on a redesigned reward audit pipeline post the “goblin” incident, which required auditing past signals and retraining the reward model—work that typically shortens release cycles [3]. Traders should watch for an official system card, Codex backend version bumps, and a Tuesday launch window, as these have preceded prior releases [1][3]. The Information reports OpenAI plans a June release, with chief scientist Jakub Pachocki calling it a “meaningful improvement” over GPT-5.5 [2].

Key catalysts include the June 22–28 window, now priced at 83–89% probability, and any announcement tied to a broader ChatGPT overhaul [2][6]. Traders must pin to the explicit `gpt-5.5` endpoint to avoid silent rollouts once GPT-5.6 is promoted [3]. With context window expansion to 1.5M tokens and agentic workflow focus, the model’s capabilities align with multi-source leaks, though pricing and full specs remain speculative [1][2]. The market’s resolution hinges solely on general public availability, not closed beta access [4].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.