Pronóstico: Alien abduction at Brazil vs Scotland game in Miami?

Platform comparison

Market context

The FIFA World Cup 2026 Group C match between Scotland and Brazil concluded on 24 June 2026 at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, with Brazil defeating Scotland 3–0. No player, official, staff member, or spectator was abducted by extraterrestrial beings during the game, confirming the market’s “No” resolution. On Polymarket, this contract currently trades at 0% YES, reflecting the on-chain consensus that the event did not occur. The platform uses USDC on the Polygon network, with conditional tokens locking the outcome based on verified reporting.

Historically, markets predicting alien abductions during major sporting events have consistently resolved to “No”, as no credible case of such an abduction has ever been documented in public records or official sports reports. Even in high-profile incidents involving unexplained phenomena—such as the 1995 Roswell UFO cover-up allegations or the 2017 Pentagon UFO video disclosures—no abduction of a human during a live football match has been substantiated. This absence of precedent frames the current 0% probability as a rational, evidence-based assessment rather than mere speculation.

Traders should monitor official FIFA match reports, stadium security logs, and global news consensus for any anomalous claims, though none have emerged. Recent coverage from Al Jazeera confirms the match result and notes no disruptions or unexplained events[1]. With the game already completed and all resolution sources pointing to a standard outcome, there are no pending catalysts, announcements, or dependencies that could alter the market’s final state. The on-chain mechanics now serve only to formalise the settled result.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.