Pronóstico: Bitcoin above … on August 13?

Platform comparison

Market context

This market hinges on Bitcoin's noon ET price on 13 August 2026 against a specified threshold on Binance's BTC/USDT pair. The settlement mechanism uses the 1-minute candle close at exactly 12:00 ET, making this a precise intraday snapshot rather than a daily close. Polymarket currently prices this at 100% YES, reflecting either an exceptionally high threshold or market consensus that Bitcoin will trade above the specified level during that window. The contract settles via USDC on Polygon, with conditional tokens representing YES and NO outcomes that traders can exit or hold through the settlement date.

Bitcoin's intraday volatility at specific timestamps has historically ranged between 2–5% across major exchanges during normal market conditions, though this varies sharply depending on macroeconomic events or exchange-specific order flow. Previous noon ET snapshots have shown Bitcoin trading within its daily range roughly 85% of the time, with outlier moves typically tied to Federal Reserve announcements or major geopolitical developments. The 100% probability here suggests the threshold is set sufficiently low that even a moderate pullback from current levels would satisfy resolution.

Traders should monitor Federal Reserve communications and US economic data releases scheduled near mid-August 2026, as these have historically driven intraday Bitcoin moves. Exchange maintenance windows on Binance, though rare, could theoretically affect the 1-minute candle if timing coincides with the noon ET window. Spot market depth and funding rates on perpetual futures will indicate whether large positions are building ahead of the settlement date, potentially signalling anticipated volatility or directional conviction.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.