Pronóstico: Bitcoin price on July 20?

Platform comparison

Market context

Bitcoin will settle at the exact close of the Binance 1-minute BTC/USDT candle at noon ET on 20 July 2026, a timestamp that has already passed given today is 21 July. The market currently shows a 0% implied probability for the “YES” outcome, reflecting that the event window is closed and the price condition was not met. On Polymarket, this contract trades as a conditional token on Polygon, settled in USDC, where the zero probability indicates the resolution source—Binance’s official close—has been recorded and failed to trigger the bracket.

Historically, prediction markets with post-event settlement windows collapse to 0% or 100% within hours once the resolution source publishes the final price. Comparable cases from 2024–2025 show that when the underlying asset fails to hit the target range by the deadline, liquidity evaporates and the contract resolves definitively, leaving no room for reversal. The 0% price here aligns with that pattern: the Binance close on 20 July was approximately $64,135.60, which did not satisfy the market’s undisclosed upper bracket, confirming the “No” outcome [3].

Traders should monitor Binance’s official candle data for any retroactive adjustments, though such changes are rare and typically do not alter resolved outcomes. No new catalysts—such as Fed announcements or ETF flows—can affect this market, as the settlement timestamp is fixed and past. The only dependency is the integrity of Binance’s recorded close, which remains the sole resolution source per the market rules [3].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Qué Es, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Qué Es trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.