Pronóstico: What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in August 2026?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket prices this contract with **0% YES** today, even though spot WTI is still trading around the mid-to-high $70s and the market snapshot shows meaningful volume and open interest behind the month-long range trade.[1][9] On Polymarket, the position is not settled in dollars but through **USDC**-backed **conditional tokens** on **Polygon**, so the relevant question for users is whether August 2026 prints ever touch the named thresholds before the **1 September 2026** settlement cut-off, not where the month closes.[1]

The current reading is best understood against a backdrop of mixed but mostly range-bound forecasts. Polymarket’s own market page shows a heavier bias towards lower touch levels than higher ones, with a **79.5%** chance of $75 and **69%** for $80, while the crowd-implied chance of $70 is still only **45.5%**.[1] That pattern fits the wider view from major forecasters that crude is likely to stay volatile but contained: J.P. Morgan has pointed to a Q4 2026 WTI average near $75, while Reuters reported earlier this year that analysts expected 2026 oil prices to ease under ample supply.[13][12]

A trader should watch OPEC+ supply guidance, US inventory data, and any headline risk around Middle East flows, because those are the fastest ways this kind of touch market can move from “unlikely” to “hit”. Reuters reported in January that forecasters saw 2026 prices softening under supply pressure, and later market coverage has noted that easing geopolitical risk and changes in tanker traffic have helped keep WTI near $77–78 in early August.[12][9] For Polymarket users, the practical catalyst is any move that expands intramonth volatility enough to threaten a threshold touch before expiry, since a single spike can settle a conditional token even if the price fades back afterwards.[1]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Qué Es, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Qué Es trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.