Pronóstico: Will Silver (SI) hit 2026 by end of June?

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Market context

Silver futures are currently priced near $65.80 per ounce, well below the strike level required for a "Yes" resolution, which explains the market’s 0% implied probability of hitting the target by the end of June 2026. This outcome reflects a sharp correction from early-2026 peaks above $100, driven by elevated U.S. Treasury yields and a firmer dollar following the latest FOMC meeting, despite persistent structural supply deficits and strong industrial demand from solar, EVs, and AI data centres[1][4].

Historically, similar 0% markets have resolved to "No" when macro pressures like rising bond yields and de-hoarding trends outweighed bullish fundamentals, as seen in prior cycles where price consolidation persisted through quarter-end despite multi-year supply shortfalls[1]. The Silver Institute now projects a 46.3 million ounce shortfall in 2026, a 15% year-over-year increase, yet elevated yields and shifting rate expectations continue to suppress spot levels through month-end[4].

Traders should monitor the upcoming FOMC commentary, U.S. Treasury yield movements, and any shifts in China’s export ban on silver, which could alter vault replenishment dynamics and paper-versus-physical price divergence[3]. Recent CME data shows July futures marking four consecutive sessions of lower lows, reinforcing the bearish momentum unless stabilising rates or renewed de-hoarding reverse the trend[4]. The resolution source remains the CME Group’s daily Active Month settlement price, calculated via volume-weighted average trades during the 12:24–12:25 CT window[2]. On Polymarket, this contract is priced in USDC on Polygon, using conditional tokens to reflect the 0% probability of a price breakout before the 25 June 2026 settlement deadline[1].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.