Pronóstico: July Inflation US - Monthly

Platform comparison

Market context

The July 2026 monthly inflation reading will measure the seasonally adjusted month-on-month change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) as published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on 12 August 2026. Polymarket currently prices this contract at 0% YES, reflecting trader conviction that the one-month percentage change will fall outside whatever threshold defines a YES resolution. The BLS release at 08:30 ET will settle the contract within hours, making this a straightforward data-dependent event with minimal interpretation risk once the figure publishes.

Month-on-month CPI changes have historically clustered between +0.2% and +0.4% in recent years, with seasonal patterns particularly pronounced in summer months. The twelve months preceding July 2026 will establish the baseline volatility traders should expect; if inflation has stabilised near the Federal Reserve's 2% annual target, monthly moves typically remain modest. The 0% probability suggests the crowd has already priced in an expectation of either deflation or a move so far outside historical norms that YES resolution appears implausible under current conditions.

Traders should monitor June 2026 CPI data (released mid-July) and any Federal Reserve communications signalling policy shifts, as these directly influence inflation momentum heading into the July reading. Energy prices and wage growth in the preceding month will be material inputs. The settlement window closes at 03:59 UTC on 12 August, giving traders roughly eight hours after the official release to adjust positions before conditional tokens resolve.

Methodology

This page reviews Pronóstico: July Inflation US - Monthly across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Qué Es, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.