Pronóstico: ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Ireland

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Market context

The ICC Women’s T20 World Cup match between West Indies and Ireland, scheduled for 27 June 2026 at Bristol County Ground, is the real-world event underpinning this prediction market. Today, Polymarket prices the contract at 100% YES for West Indies winning, reflecting near-total confidence in their victory before the toss has even occurred.

Historically, West Indies have dominated Ireland in T20 internationals, though Ireland recently recorded their first-ever T20 win against West Indies in women’s cricket earlier this year, a breakthrough that could unsettle expectations if momentum shifts [2]. In men’s T20 World Cups, Ireland once lost to West Indies when rain prevented play, eliminating them from the tournament [7]. These precedents suggest that while West Indies remain the stronger side, Ireland’s recent form introduces a narrow but non-zero risk of an upset, making the 100% pricing unusually absolute.

Traders should monitor the official team announcements for player availability, especially any late injuries or squad changes, as well as the toss outcome and weather conditions at Bristol, which could affect pitch behaviour [4]. Ireland’s final group-stage fixture status adds pressure, potentially elevating their performance [6]. The ICC’s live score updates and ESPNcricinfo’s post-match report will determine the final settlement, with any on-field tiebreaks like a Super Over counted as decisive [3]. USDC deposits on Polygon via conditional tokens will settle automatically once the result is confirmed on-chain.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Pronóstico: ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Ireland on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.