Pronóstico: Bitcoin price on June 25?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Bitcoin’s final close price on 25 June 2026, specifically the 12:00 ET noon Binance 1-minute candle for BTC/USDT, is the real-world event this market resolves to. Today, Polymarket prices the YES contract at 0%, implying the crowd believes the price will not hit the specified range. This near-zero probability mirrors historical cases where Bitcoin faced sharp mid-year corrections; for instance, in June 2025, prices dipped below $60,000 before recovering, yet the market often overreacts to short-term volatility, inflating downside bets even when long-term trends remain bullish[8]. Traders should note that conditional tokens on Polygon, settled in USDC, reflect this pessimism, but on-chain liquidity patterns suggest a potential divergence if sentiment shifts.

Key catalysts to watch include the US Federal Reserve’s mid-year interest rate decision, scheduled for late June, which could trigger volatility across crypto markets[3]. Additionally, Binance’s upcoming “Traders League Season 3” may influence trading volumes and price action, as seen in previous league events that boosted BTC liquidity[4]. Recent analyst optimism points to Bitcoin reaching $80,000 by end-June, a 14% rise from current levels, though this remains contingent on macroeconomic stability[3]. Traders must also monitor Ethereum’s price movements, as BTC/ETH correlation often dictates short-term trends, and any regulatory announcements from the SEC could disrupt the market. The 1-minute candle resolution source on Binance ensures precision, but traders should verify data integrity during high-volatility periods.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.