Pronóstico: Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?

Platform comparison

Market context

The Digital Asset Market Clarity Act of 2025 (H.R.3633) passed the House on 17 July 2025 with bipartisan backing but remains stalled in the Senate Banking Committee, leaving its 2026 enactment uncertain [4][5]. On Polymarket, this crypto contract trades at 38% YES, priced in USDC on Polygon via conditional tokens, reflecting the market’s scepticism about Senate approval before the 31 December 2026 deadline.

Historically, US crypto market-structure bills face prolonged Senate hurdles despite House passage. The GENIUS Act on stablecoins succeeded only after years of iteration and cross-committee alignment, whereas earlier proposals like the Financial Innovation and Technology for the 21st Century Act (FIT21) passed the House in 2024 but never reached a Senate vote [4]. The CLARITY Act’s current 38% probability aligns with this pattern: strong House support does not guarantee Senate passage, especially when the Banking Committee has prioritised its own draft, the Responsible Financial Innovation Act [5].

Traders should monitor three catalysts: (1) a Senate Banking Committee vote to advance H.R.3633, (2) any joint SEC–CFTC rulemaking announcements that signal legislative momentum, and (3) the committee’s decision on whether to replace CLARITY with the RFIA draft [3][5]. Recent reporting notes the Senate has not scheduled a hearing for the Act since August 2025, suggesting a tight window for action before year-end [5]. Absent a committee vote in the next six months, the probability of signing by 2026 will likely drift lower.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Pronóstico: Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Qué Es. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Qué Es trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.