Pronóstico: Total commitments for the Credible public sale on MetaDAO

Platform comparison

Market context

Credible Finance’s public sale on MetaDAO has already attracted $2.315m in soft institutional commits, pushing the Polymarket contract for its total commitment threshold to 99% YES as traders price in near-certain success before the August 2026 deadline[1]. The market resolves on the “committed” figure shown on the official sale page, counting any momentary breach of the threshold regardless of later refunds, which locks in the outcome once the on-chain tally hits the target[1].

Historically, MetaDAO raises have seen 4× funding growth since April 2025, with $96m combined raised across projects by December 2025, driven by USDC locked in on-chain treasuries and futarchy-based capital allocation that slashes rug risks[2]. Comparable launches like UMBRA (~7×) and META (>3×) show strong post-raise performance, while institutional rounds such as the latest $9.9m OTC deal bought by Variant, 6MV, and Paradigm signal deep capital confidence in the model[2].

Traders should monitor Credible’s curated raise launch on July 13, 2026, which is now live and powered by Solana, as well as any updates on the discretionary cap and soft-commit conversions to hard USDC commitments on Polygon[7]. Key catalysts include the 4-day commitment window, real-time accumulator mechanics that reward early funders, and the discretionary cap allowing founders to accept partial commitments[3]. Any delay in the sale or failure to verifiably display the threshold on the sale page would be the primary downside risk, though current momentum suggests this is unlikely[1].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Qué Es, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.