Pronóstico: What price will Bitcoin hit on August 19?

Platform comparison

Market context

Bitcoin's price action on 19 August 2026 will determine whether this contract settles YES or NO. The current Polymarket pricing reflects zero probability of the event occurring, meaning traders are expressing near-certainty that Bitcoin will not reach whatever threshold this contract specifies. On Polygon, the conditional tokens backing this market carry minimal value in the YES branch, with USDC liquidity concentrated almost entirely on the NO side. This pricing structure suggests the strike price sits substantially above Bitcoin's anticipated range for that date, or the market has assigned negligible odds to a specific price target materialising within the settlement window.

Historical Bitcoin volatility provides context for evaluating such binary outcomes. During the 2017 bull run, Bitcoin moved from roughly $4,000 to $13,000 across a single year, whilst the 2020–2021 cycle saw moves from $10,000 to $69,000. More recently, 2024 has demonstrated lower annualised volatility relative to earlier cycles, with Bitcoin trading in a tighter band despite spot exchange-traded fund approvals in January. The zero probability assigned here suggests either an extreme price target or a market consensus that August 2026 conditions will not produce the necessary momentum.

Traders monitoring this contract should track macroeconomic calendars for Federal Reserve communications, which historically influence risk appetite and crypto positioning. Bitcoin's correlation with equity markets and the US dollar remains material; any significant shifts in inflation expectations or geopolitical events could alter the probability calculus. Regulatory announcements from major jurisdictions, particularly around digital asset frameworks, have also moved Bitcoin substantially in recent years and warrant attention through the settlement window.

Methodology

This page reviews Pronóstico: What price will Bitcoin hit on August 19? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Qué Es, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.