Pronóstico: What price will Bitcoin hit on August 9?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket currently has this contract priced at a **0% YES** crowd-implied probability, which means traders are assigning no live chance to the listed target being hit within the settlement window. On Polymarket, that view is expressed in USDC on Polygon through conditional tokens, so the market price is the practical read on where money is willing to stand, not a forecast in the abstract.[12]

That near-zero reading is easier to interpret against a broader set of Bitcoin forecasts that still cluster far above the low-$60,000s. Recent prediction pages and market models have put August-2026 BTC targets around **$65,000 to $67,500**, with wider upside calls reaching into the high-$60,000s or above, while a separate weekly model expected Bitcoin to close above **$60,391.50** for the week ending 9 August.[1][3][5][6][9][10] In that context, a zeroed-out Polymarket price usually signals that traders see the contract’s required level as either already out of reach or too dependent on a sharp intraday move to be worth bidding up.

The main catalysts are macro dates and any spot-driven volatility around them: the next US inflation release, Treasury-rate repricing, and any remarks from Fed officials can change crypto risk appetite quickly, while summer liquidity can make moves more exaggerated than the underlying news flow.[15] Traders also watch whether Bitcoin holds or loses nearby support levels during the session, because a fast break can force short covering or stop-loss selling and briefly push price through a contract band even without a fundamental shift.[15]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Qué Es trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.