Pronóstico: What price will Bitcoin hit on August 12?

Platform comparison

Market context

Bitcoin's price action on 12 August 2026 will determine settlement of this contract, with traders on Polymarket currently pricing the YES outcome at 0%, suggesting the crowd expects Bitcoin to avoid whatever price threshold defines a positive resolution. The market operates on Polygon via USDC-denominated conditional tokens, meaning settlement hinges on a precise price feed at a specific moment—likely a major exchange close or UTC timestamp—rather than a range or average. At present, the contract carries minimal liquidity and no meaningful backing, reflecting deep scepticism about the event occurring.

Historical precedent matters here: Bitcoin has experienced roughly 15–20% daily moves during volatile periods, most recently in March 2024 when geopolitical tensions and Fed policy shifts drove sharp swings. However, such moves are rare outside crisis windows. The 0% crowd probability suggests either the threshold is extremely high or low relative to expected price action, or traders believe the settlement criteria themselves are unlikely to trigger cleanly. Comparable Polymarket contracts on Bitcoin price targets have typically seen non-zero probabilities only when thresholds sit within 5–10% of spot price at contract inception.

Catalysts traders monitor include Federal Reserve policy announcements, major cryptocurrency exchange regulatory rulings, and macroeconomic data releases scheduled between now and August 2026. Bitcoin's correlation with equity markets and Treasury yields remains a primary driver; any significant shift in real rates or risk appetite could compress or expand daily volatility. Settlement depends entirely on the specific price level encoded in the contract terms and the data source used for verification.

Methodology

This page reviews Pronóstico: What price will Bitcoin hit on August 12? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Qué Es, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Qué Es. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.