Pronóstico: Trump out as President before 2027?

Platform comparison

Market context

Donald Trump faces a 9% crowd-implied probability of resigning or being removed from the presidency before the end of 2026, as priced on Polymarket today. This conditional token contract, settled in USDC on the Polygon network, reflects a market view that permanent removal is unlikely while Republicans retain Senate control, despite rising speculation about impeachment inquiries.

Historically, comparable cases such as the 2021 impeachment articles introduced by House Democrats underscore that impeachment alone rarely leads to removal without a Senate conviction. Kalshi recently estimated Trump’s removal probability at nearly 28.7%, a sharp increase from April, yet Rabobank analysis notes conviction remains improbable if Republican senators continue supporting the President, mirroring the structural barriers that have protected past presidents from permanent exit.

Traders should monitor upcoming House impeachment announcements, Senate scheduling for any trial, and potential 25th Amendment invocations by the Vice President and Cabinet. A recent Newsweek report highlights that impeachment and removal probability has reached a record high for Trump’s second term, making these procedural milestones the primary catalysts for any shift in the 9% YES price.

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Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Qué Es, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Qué Es. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.