Pronóstico: LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Karmine Corp (BO3) - Esports World Cup Playoffs

Platform comparison

Market context

Anyone’s Legend face Karmine Corp in the League of Legends Quarterfinal 2 at the Esports World Cup Playoffs, with the match set to begin at 7:00AM ET today. On Polymarket, this BO3 contract trades at 73% YES for Anyone’s Legend, implying a strong on-chain conviction that the Chinese side will secure the win. Traders holding conditional tokens on Polygon can settle their positions in USDC once the match concludes, with the platform resolving to the named winner or a 50-50 split if the event is cancelled, tied, or delayed beyond seven days.

Historical voting patterns from Strafe mirror this on-chain pricing, where 72.9% of users forecast Anyone’s Legend to win, suggesting a consistent cross-platform consensus that KC’s recent Group Stage loss to Gen.G may have exposed vulnerabilities against top-tier LPL opposition [1]. While KC defeated weaker teams earlier in the tournament, their 1-0 defeat to Gen.G in just 27 minutes highlights the speed at which elite LCK teams can dismantle European rosters, reinforcing the market’s bias toward the LPL representative in a high-stakes BO3 [2].

Traders should monitor the official Esports World Cup broadcast on DAZN for any pre-match delays or roster announcements, as the tournament is streamed globally except in restricted regions like China and Korea [3]. Any delay beyond the seven-day settlement window would trigger the 50-50 resolution clause, while a confirmed start time locks in the current probability. With the match scheduled for today, the primary catalyst is the live outcome itself, as no further roster changes or schedule shifts have been reported since the qualifier phase where Anyone’s Legend were predicted to beat Top Esports 2-1 [4].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Qué Es. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Qué Es trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.