Pronóstico: LoL: Shopify Rebellion vs Disguised (BO3) - LCS Regular Season

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket is pricing this contract at **100% YES**, so the on-chain market is effectively assuming Shopify Rebellion will beat Disguised in the scheduled LCS regular season series. On Polymarket, that means traders are swapping USDC on Polygon against the market’s conditional token outcome, with settlement depending on the match result rather than the pre-match narrative.

Recent head-to-head history gives a mixed frame for reading that price. Shopify Rebellion beat Disguised **2-0** in their Spring regular season meeting on 16 May 2026[2][3], but one current summer preview still projects a **Disguised 2-1** upset, which shows there is at least some model disagreement about the teams’ matchup edge[1]. That contrast matters because a 100% quote leaves almost no room for variance, draft swings, or an unexpected series result.

For traders, the main catalysts are straightforward: confirmation that the BO3 starts on schedule, any roster or substitution announcement, and whether either team arrives with form changes from the last split. The market description says unresolved outcomes only flip to **50-50** if the match is cancelled, tied, or delayed more than seven days without a winner, so schedule integrity is the key mechanical risk to watch alongside the competitive one.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4

Methodology

We track Pronóstico: LoL: Shopify Rebellion vs Disguised (BO3) - LCS Regular Season across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Qué Es trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.