Pronóstico: Ethereum above … on August 13?

Platform comparison

Market context

Ethereum's price at the noon ET candle close on 13 August 2026 will determine this market's outcome. The contract tracks a single one-minute candle on Binance's ETH/USDT pair, requiring the closing price to exceed a specified threshold. Settlement hinges on Binance's official 1m candle data, making exchange-specific price action the sole arbiter rather than broader market consensus or other trading venues.

The 100% implied probability reflects the structural nature of this contract class. Ethereum spot prices on major exchanges rarely gap below arbitrary thresholds on any given day, particularly when settlement windows extend two years into the future. Historical precedent shows that even during acute volatility events—the March 2020 liquidation cascade, the May 2021 correction, or the November 2022 FTX contagion—Ethereum maintained measurable trading activity across all price levels. A two-year runway substantially increases the likelihood that Ethereum trades above most conceivable price points at some moment during market hours.

Traders monitoring this contract should track Ethereum's medium-term adoption metrics and macroeconomic conditions leading into August 2026. Regulatory clarity on staking and smart contract liability, institutional custody developments, and broader cryptocurrency market sentiment will shape baseline price expectations. Near-term catalysts include Ethereum Foundation research releases and network upgrade timelines, though the extended settlement window dampens the relevance of any single announcement. Polymarket's conditional token mechanics—USDC collateral on Polygon, redemption against Binance's published data—mean execution risk remains minimal provided Binance's API remains operational.

Methodology

We track Pronóstico: Ethereum above … on August 13? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Qué Es trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.