Pronóstico: Ethereum price on July 6?

Platform comparison

Market context

Ethereum is trading near $1,768 today, with the Binance 1-minute candle close at noon ET on 6 July 2026 set to determine whether the “Ethereum price on July 6?” market resolves YES. The crowd currently implies a 0% chance of YES, suggesting traders expect the price to fall outside the defined bracket or the market to resolve to “No” under its rules.

Historically, similar Polymarket contracts on ETH price ranges have seen probabilities shift sharply only when the underlying price approaches the bracket boundary within hours of settlement. In the early July 2026 window, ETH hovered between $1,570 and $1,810, with the 6 July close recorded at $1,790 on Binance, a level that would have resolved higher-range brackets if the market had been structured around that date [2][10]. The current 0% probability implies the bracket is either far above current levels or the market is mis-specified relative to the settlement time.

Traders should monitor the USDC liquidity on Polygon for conditional token flows, as large USDC deposits into Polymarket often precede probability moves. Key catalysts include any scheduled Ethereum network upgrades, major DeFi protocol announcements, or macro data releases that could spike volatility before noon ET. Bitget and Robinhood have recently listed ETH range markets for early July 2026, indicating active institutional interest in short-term ETH price bets that could influence Polymarket odds if the price nears the bracket [3][9].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Qué Es, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Qué Es. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.