Pronóstico: Fed rate cut by 2026?

Platform comparison

Market context

The Federal Reserve is currently holding its benchmark interest rate steady between 3.5% and 3.75%, with no upper-bound decrease expected during the December 2025 to January 2026 window. On Polymarket, this contract trades at a 0% probability for a "Yes" outcome, reflecting the market’s consensus that the Fed will pause its cutting cycle as solid job growth and persistent inflation temper expectations for further easing.

Historically, the Fed has paused rate cuts when economic data remains robust, as seen in late 2024 and early 2025 when solid employment figures halted the downward trajectory of borrowing costs. Following three consecutive 25-basis-point cuts in September, October, and December 2025, the central bank adopted a more hawkish stance, with the dot-plot indicating only one additional cut in 2026. Economists now see a December cut as unlikely, with the probability dropping from 97% in mid-October to just 22% today, according to CBS News.

Traders should monitor the January 2026 FOMC meeting scheduled for January 27–28, the release of the Fed’s dot-plot, and incoming inflation and employment data. Goldman Sachs forecasts two cuts in 2026, with the first likely in March rather than January, suggesting the Fed will wait for clearer signs of cooling before acting. Any emergency rate cut would qualify, but current signals point to a hold, making the 0% market price a rational reflection of policy inertia.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Pronóstico: Fed rate cut by 2026? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Qué Es, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Qué Es. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.