Pronóstico: Croatia vs. Ghana

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Active sub-markets

Market context

On Saturday, 27 June 2026, Croatia and Ghana face off in a decisive Group L clash at Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia, with the match kicking off at 10 p.m. BST. Polymarket currently prices the YES contract for Croatia at 54%, reflecting a slight edge for the European side in this winner-takes-all encounter. The on-chain mechanics utilise USDC on the Polygon network, where conditional tokens determine settlement once the final whistle blows, locking in the outcome for traders holding positions.

Historically, similar knockout-stage probabilities in World Cup qualifiers have favoured teams with recent defensive resilience, as seen when Croatia edged Panama 1-0 in their last outing[4]. Ghana’s 0-0 draw with England suggests they can frustrate stronger opponents, yet their qualification path often hinges on converting narrow margins, a pattern observed in their previous World Cup matches against Wales where a single goal decided the result[3]. This 54% figure aligns with past cases where a team’s recent clean sheet outweighs an opponent’s attacking potential in tight Group scenarios.

Traders should monitor pre-match announcements regarding lineups, particularly the fitness of key players like Modrić for Croatia and Semenyo for Ghana, as injuries could shift the probability significantly[9]. The match referee, Drew Thomas Fischer, is known for strict foul management, which may impact the tempo and increase the likelihood of a low-scoring game[2]. Additionally, broadcast schedules on ITV 4 and Fox Sports will provide real-time updates on any tactical shifts, while the 22:00 kickoff time on ITV 4 ensures UK viewers can track developments before settlement[4].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.