Pronóstico: Türkiye vs. United States - Halftime Result

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Market context

On 25 June 2026 at 10:00 PM ET, the United States men’s national team will face Türkiye in a FIFA World Cup Group D match at Los Angeles Stadium, with the halftime outcome already priced at 0% for a US win on Polymarket. This near-zero probability reflects Türkiye’s complete elimination and goalless record in their first World Cup appearance in 24 years, while the US has already clinched the group with two victories and five points. Historical parallels include Australia’s 2-0 win over Türkiye on 14 June and the US’s own 2-0 victory against Australia on 19 June, both underscoring Türkiye’s defensive fragility and the US’s consistent away form in this tournament [2][3].

Traders should monitor pre-match line-ups and any late injury updates, particularly regarding US captain Christian Pulisic, who remains sidelined with a calf injury but whose absence has not hindered US results [3]. The US’s tactical flexibility without Pulisic—evident in Alex Freeman’s header against Australia—suggests they may maintain a compact shape at halftime, especially if Türkiye continues its goalless streak. With the US already guaranteed top spot in Group D regardless of this match’s outcome, the catalyst lies in Türkiye’s potential morale collapse or early tactical errors, which could further depress the US halftime win probability [5][6]. Match details confirm the game starts at 02:00 UTC on 26 June at SoFi Stadium, with on-chain settlement via USDC on Polygon using conditional tokens [4][7].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.