Pronóstico: S&P 500 (SPY) closes above … on July 13?

Platform comparison

Market context

SPY, the exchange-traded fund tracking the S&P 500, will close on 13 July 2026 at some price level. Polymarket currently prices this contract at 0% implied probability, meaning traders are pricing in either extreme confidence in a specific outcome or insufficient liquidity to establish a meaningful bid-ask spread. The settlement hinges on the official closing price reported by the exchange at 20:00 UTC, which will be converted to conditional tokens on Polygon and settled in USDC once the price is confirmed.

Historical volatility in July has rarely produced the kind of directional shock required to move SPY dramatically in a single session. Over the past decade, daily moves exceeding 3% have occurred roughly 5–7 times per year across the full market calendar, with July showing no particular concentration of tail events. The 0% probability suggests either the strike price sits far outside reasonable trading ranges or the market has collapsed into a corner where one outcome dominates entirely. Comparable single-day settlement contracts on major indices typically show non-zero probabilities unless the strike is set at an extreme percentile of expected outcomes.

Traders monitoring this contract should track earnings announcements scheduled for the week of 7–13 July, Federal Reserve communications, and any geopolitical developments that could trigger overnight futures moves. The US jobs report, if scheduled near the settlement date, historically drives equity repricing. On-chain liquidity on Polygon will determine execution costs for position entry or exit, and slippage may widen significantly if volume remains thin through the settlement window.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Qué Es. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.