Pronóstico: S&P 500 (SPY) closes above … on July 20?

Platform comparison

Market context

SPY closed at $742.09 on 20 July 2026, well above the $725 strike in the leading Polymarket contract, yet the YES side for “closes above $725” sits at 0% because the market has already resolved and the outcome is definitively YES. On Polymarket, traders settle these conditional tokens in USDC on Polygon, where the protocol automatically redeems winning shares at $1 once the official closing price is verified against the NYSE Arca feed.

Historically, July closes for SPY have rarely breached the 52-week high of $760.40, with the all-time peak of $757.62 hit on 2 June 2026; the $742 level seen on 20 July is 3.7% below that high but comfortably above the 52-week average of $678.40, framing the 0% probability as a post-resolution artefact rather than a live forecast [6][1]. Comparable cases from 2024–2025 show July closes clustering near the mid-$600s to low-$700s, making a $742 close an outlier that already triggered settlement.

Traders watching similar SPY contracts should monitor the FOMC schedule, quarterly earnings from mega-cap tech, and the monthly PCE inflation release, as these catalysts drive intraday volatility that can push SPY toward or away from key strikes before the close. Recent commentary from Benzinga notes SPY’s tight trading range around $742 as markets digest mixed earnings signals, underscoring how event-driven flows can shift probabilities in the hours before settlement [1].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Pronóstico: S&P 500 (SPY) closes above … on July 20? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Qué Es. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.