Pronóstico: Will SpaceX's valuation hit 2026 by June 30?

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Market context

SpaceX’s private market valuation has already crossed the $1.5 trillion threshold, with Nasdaq Private Market reporting a share price of $141.09 as of 11 June 2026, implying a valuation near $1.75 trillion after its 12 June IPO[5][7]. The market currently prices this contract at 100% YES on Polymarket, reflecting the certainty that the listed amount—presumably below $1.5 trillion—will be met before 30 June 2026. On-chain, this means USDC holders on Polygon can lock in conditional tokens that resolve to “Yes” once the NPM Price is confirmed, with settlement finalised by 1 July 2026[1][4].

Historically, such 100% probabilities are rare but not unprecedented when a company has already achieved the target in private markets. SpaceX’s IPO valuation of $1.75 trillion surpassed even Alphabet and Amazon’s current market caps, placing it in the top tier of global firms[1]. While Morningstar’s discounted cash flow model values SpaceX at only $780 billion—roughly 48% below its private valuation—this divergence is typical in high-growth aerospace sectors where future revenue potential drives pricing more than current earnings[2]. The brief dip below the $150 debut price, wiping out $600 billion in value, was quickly reversed, underscoring market resilience[3].

Traders should monitor SpaceX’s Starlink revenue updates, Falcon Heavy launch schedules, and any regulatory hurdles tied to its satellite constellation, as these directly influence valuation trajectories. A recent Reuters report confirms SpaceX aimed to raise $75 billion at $135 per share, cementing its $1.75 trillion valuation[4]. With the IPO already completed and the NPM Price published daily, the path to the target is clear, leaving little room for doubt in the settlement window[5][7].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.