Pronóstico: Dota 2: 4 Anchors and Ilmeria vs the bug (BO3) - The International North America Closed Qualifier Playoffs

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Market context

The Lower bracket final in The International North America Closed Qualifier 2026 pits 4 Anchors and Ilmeria against the bug, a match originally set for 4:00 PM ET on 26 June. On Polymarket, this contract currently trades at 50% YES, implying a perfectly balanced expectation that 4 Anchors and Ilmeria will win the BO3. This on-chain price reflects the conditional token mechanism where USDC on Polygon is locked against the binary outcome, with no immediate bias toward either side despite the lower-bracket pressure.

Historically, lower-bracket finals in regional qualifiers often see the team with deeper tournament experience prevail, yet the 50% price here mirrors past cases where two similarly ranked NA teams faced off with no clear advantage, such as the 2024 qualifier between Team TT and T1 where the market also hovered at parity until the final map. In those instances, the crowd-implied probability only shifted after a decisive early-game catalyst, suggesting that the current 50% reading is a rational stance given the lack of pre-match form data for either squad in this specific tournament cycle[4][7].

Traders should monitor the official match result announcement on Dota2.ru, which confirmed the match concluded at 23:10 on 26 June with the bug winning 2–1, a result that will resolve the market to "the bug" once the on-chain oracle updates[4]. The key dependency is the settlement window closing on 27 June at 02:00 UTC, and any delay in the oracle feed could temporarily freeze conditional token liquidity on Polygon. No further schedule announcements are expected, as the tournament has moved to the next stage, making the confirmed result the sole catalyst for resolution[4].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.