Pronóstico: Türkiye vs. United States

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Market context

On Thursday, 25 June 2026 at 10:00 p.m. ET, the US Men’s National Team will face Türkiye in their final Group D match of the 2026 FIFA World Cup at Los Angeles Stadium. Polymarket currently prices the “Türkiye vs. United States” contract at 23% YES, implying a modest edge for the US side despite Türkiye’s strong recent form. This on-chain market, settled in USDC on Polygon using conditional tokens, reflects real-time sentiment rather than abstract team strength.

Historically, the USMNT holds a 2W-1L-1D record against Türkiye since their first meeting in 1991, having won the last two encounters. The US lost only once, in 2003 during the FIFA Confederations Cup—a tournament disbanded in 2017. Bookmakers still list the US as a slight favourite, with Türkiye finishing second in odds rankings, suggesting the market views past dominance as a reliable signal for this fixture[4][6].

Traders should monitor pre-match line-ups, injury updates, and tactical announcements released by both federations before kickoff. FOX Sports will broadcast the match live, with streaming available on FOX One, offering real-time data that may shift conditional token valuations[3][5]. Any late changes to squad selections or formation strategies could significantly alter the implied probability, especially given the high stakes of a final group-stage match[1].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.