Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Qué Es) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Creeper | 100% |
| Skeleton | 100% |
| Spider | 100% |
| Wither Skeleton | 100% |
| Zombified Piglin | 100% |
| Creeper (again) | 100% |
| Zombie | 50% |
| Wither Skeleton (again) | 50% |
| Creeper (again) | 50% |
| Skeleton (again) | 50% |
| Creeper (again) | 25% |
| Ghast | 7% |
| Polar Bear | 5% |
| Piglin | 5% |
| Zombie (again) | 5% |
| Blaze | 4% |
| Skeleton (again) | 2% |
| Enderman | 1% |
| Phantom | 1% |
| Iron Golem | 1% |
| Witch | 1% |
| Pillager | 1% |
| Hoglin | 1% |
| Wither Skeleton (again) | 1% |
| Zombified Piglin (again) | 1% |
| Warden | 1% |
| Elder Guardian | 1% |
| Vex | 1% |
| Spider (again) | 1% |
| Slime | 0% |
| Wither | 0% |
| Ender Dragon | 0% |
Market context
Market consensus: 100% chance of pronóstico: which mobs will eliminate kai or speed?. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. Kai Cenat and IShowSpeed are scheduled to stream a hardcore Minecraft marathon on August 7, 2026, at 5:00 PM ET, in which they will attempt to defeat the Ender Dragon, the Wither, …
Methodology
We track Pronóstico: Which mobs will eliminate Kai or Speed? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
FAQ
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Qué Es trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
Trade Pronóstico: Which mobs will eliminate Kai or Speed? on Polymarket Qué Es
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