Pronóstico: Will Hamas agree to disarm by 2026?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket is pricing this contract at **0% YES** right now, so the market is effectively saying there is no credible path to an official Hamas disarmament announcement before the deadline. On Polymarket, that means buyers are paying USDC on Polygon for conditional tokens that only settle positively if Hamas’s widely acknowledged leadership makes a qualifying public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military capacity in Gaza.

That pricing fits the recent record. Reuters reported in April that Hamas told mediators it would not even discuss disarmament without guarantees of a full Israeli withdrawal, while the BBC reported the group had rejected a disarmament plan and was tying any talks to the completion of earlier ceasefire steps[1][2]. Other reporting since then has described the same pattern: Hamas has repeatedly framed disarmament as conditional on Israeli redeployment, aid access, and a broader political track, with some sources saying it would consider only staged surrender of heavy weapons rather than full demilitarisation[4][9][12]. For a trader, that history makes a straight-up “Yes” outcome look dependent on a major policy reversal rather than incremental bargaining.

The main catalysts are formal statements from Hamas, mediated ceasefire documents, and any shift in the sequencing of Gaza’s post-war plan. Watch for reports from the Egypt-Qatar-U.S. mediation channel, especially if Israel announces withdrawal milestones or if the proposed technocratic administration for Gaza is activated, because those are the conditions Hamas has linked to weapons talks[1][2][4]. AP also reported that a U.S.-backed proposal contemplated phased decommissioning starting with heavy weapons, which matters because the market allows partial disarmament to qualify if it is officially announced[6]. Any statement should be read narrowly: the resolution needs a credible announcement from Hamas leadership, not ambiguous hints from lower-level factions or media speculation.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Pronóstico: Will Hamas agree to disarm by 2026? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Qué Es. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Qué Es trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.