Pronóstico: Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket’s conditional tokens are pricing **27% YES** for a public Iranian pledge to end all uranium enrichment by 31 December 2026, which implies traders see the event as possible but still a minority outcome. Because the market settles on any public agreement or pledge before the deadline, not on implementation, the relevant question is whether Tehran will make a clear statement that fits the contract terms while users have USDC positioned on Polygon.

The historical baseline is not encouraging for a full stop to enrichment. Under the 2015 JCPOA, Iran accepted limits on enrichment level, stockpile size and centrifuge use, but it did not give up enrichment altogether; later, Iran announced it would break the 3.67% cap and said it was no longer bound by the deal after the JCPOA expired in October 2025.[3][6][13][17] That history matters for reading the current price: the market is not asking for a return to JCPOA-style limits, but for a much harder concession, namely an outright public commitment to end enrichment.

The main catalysts are diplomatic headlines, inspection and verification signals, and any sequencing tied to sanctions relief or broader security talks. A recent report said US officials described Iran as having agreed in principle to dispose of its enriched uranium stockpile, while noting that IAEA verification had not yet been issued; that kind of partial progress can move adjacent Iran nuclear markets even if it does not satisfy this contract on its own.[2][9] Traders should also watch for statements from Iran, the US, Israel and the IAEA, since the market resolves on the announcement itself, not on whether centrifuges are later dismantled or whether a deal actually survives.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Pronóstico: Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Qué Es trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.