Pronóstico: Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by 2026?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket is pricing this contract at **0% YES** on USDC-settled, Polygon-based conditional tokens, which means the market is currently assigning no visible odds that Iran will publicly agree to surrender any part of its enriched uranium stockpile before the March 31, 2026 cut-off. For a trader, the key point is that the event is not about a silent back-channel understanding: it needs a public Iranian commitment that the stockpile, or part of it, will be transferred, shipped, or otherwise handed over.

The comparison case is the 2016 JCPOA, when Iran accepted major limits and shipped out large quantities of enriched uranium under international verification, showing that stockpile removal is possible when Tehran wants sanctions relief and a broader diplomatic reset.[3] But the present setup is far less favourable. Recent reporting described Iran’s stockpile as roughly 11 tonnes of enriched uranium, with the material difficult to access or eliminate after wartime damage and without on-site inspections.[1] Earlier in 2026, US officials were said to be discussing a broader peace framework, but the exact disposal mechanism had still not been negotiated, while Reuters-linked reporting cited Iranian resistance to any export of the uranium.[2][7]

Traders should watch for a formal US-Iran announcement, any IAEA-backed verification language, and whether a broader sanctions deal lands with a concrete nuclear annex. Polymarket’s own market description says a framework agreement was expected around 20 June 2026, followed by a 60-day period to settle nuclear details, so headlines tied to those deadlines or to third-country storage options such as China matter directly for this contract.[5] The main dependency is whether Tehran moves from vague talk of negotiations to an explicit public pledge; absent that wording, even a broader deal would not settle this market Yes.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Qué Es. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Qué Es trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.