Pronóstico: Iran charges Hormuz fees by 2026?

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event at the heart of this market is whether Iran will officially announce and begin collecting mandatory fees from commercial vessels navigating the Strait of Hormuz. Currently, Polymarket prices this contract at just 2% for a “Yes” outcome, reflecting deep scepticism among traders that Iran will secure international backing for such a move. On-chain, the market uses USDC on Polygon, with conditional tokens determining settlement once the 60-day peace window expires and Iran’s maritime authority reasserts control over the strait.

Historically, attempts to impose transit fees on international waterways have faced strong legal and diplomatic resistance. The Strait of Malacca and Singapore operate voluntary service-fee models, but these are distinct from mandatory tolls. In February 2026, Iran and Oman proposed a joint fee plan to the U.S., yet Secretary of State Marco Rubio explicitly rejected any monetisation of the strait, citing existing international law that forbids tolls on international waterways [1]. This precedent frames the current 2% probability as grounded in legal reality rather than mere political uncertainty.

Traders should monitor Iran-Oman joint discussions scheduled to begin next week, as well as any formal announcements from Iran’s Strait of Hormuz body regarding fee implementation [2]. A key dependency is whether the U.S. will revise its stance after the 60-day transit window closes. Recent reports indicate Iran insists fees will be mandatory, while Oman describes them as voluntary—a contradiction that could derail the plan [2]. Any official declaration of mandatory charges would be a major catalyst, though current diplomatic friction suggests such a move remains unlikely before August 2026.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Qué Es trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.