Pronóstico: Iran charges Hormuz fees by 2026?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket prices this contract at **0% YES** today, so the market is treating an official, generally applicable Hormuz fee regime as effectively absent on-chain. For Polymarket users, the distinction matters: settlement is about an Iranian **official announcement plus actual collection** of mandatory charges from commercial vessels, not isolated demands, informal side payments, or rhetoric around “service fees” on Polygon-settled USDC conditional tokens.

The historical read is still shaped by a gap between intent and execution. Reuters reported in April that Iran was *proposing* fees as part of a wider settlement framework, while later coverage described Tehran as saying it was seeking charges for services rather than transit tolls.[12] By late March, Bloomberg and the Wall Street Journal were already reporting ad hoc payments sought from some ships, but those accounts said the mechanism was not systematic, which is exactly the sort of ambiguity that can leave a market like this unresolved until a formal policy appears.[1][3] That explains why the crowd can sit at 0% even with repeated headlines: the market needs a clean, qualifying policy, not just a de facto squeeze on selected voyages.

The catalysts to watch are official Iranian statements, any published fee schedule, and whether Oman-backed regional management proposals convert into enforceable billing.[14] Reuters reported on 28 July that Oman had put forward voluntary-fee alternatives, which cuts against a mandatory toll interpretation and makes any later joint mechanism important for traders to monitor.[14] The key practical tell is whether commercial operators are being billed under a stated rule set for passage through the strait, rather than paying for ancillary services or passing ad hoc checks.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Qué Es trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.