Pronóstico: Iran commits not to attack ships in Hormuz by Sunday?

Platform comparison

Market context

Iran faces a direct US demand to publicly guarantee it will stop attacking ships in the Strait of Hormuz, a condition linked to upcoming negotiations in Oman. The crowd-implied 2% probability on Polymarket reflects the market’s view that Tehran will not issue such an unambiguous, declarative commitment before the settlement deadline. Traders buying YES contracts with USDC on the Polygon network are effectively betting that Iranian officials will override their current leverage strategy to secure a diplomatic breakthrough.

Historically, Iran has used the strait as a coercive tool rather than a concession point, often charging fees for safe passage or halting vessels deemed hostile while allowing its own exports to pass. Previous instances, including the 2026 closure claims and recent IRGC captures of the MSC Francesca and Epaminondas, show a pattern of selective enforcement rather than blanket policy shifts. Comparable cases suggest that public pledges to cease all attacks are rare unless tied to a broader ceasefire or sanctions relief, making a standalone announcement unlikely.

Key catalysts include the outcome of Saturday’s talks in Oman led by US Vice President JD Vance and any immediate follow-up statements from Tehran. Traders must monitor whether US officials confirm Iran has accepted the demand for a public pledge, as Reuters reported the US insists on this commitment to move negotiations forward [9]. A qualifying announcement would need to be a clear, official declaration from the Iranian government or an authorized representative, explicitly stating a future policy not to attack transiting ships, rather than a conditional or vague assurance.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Qué Es, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

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Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

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