Pronóstico: Iran successfully targets shipping by 2026?

Platform comparison

Market context

Iranian forces have already boarded and attacked merchant ships in the Strait of Hormuz, blocking major energy traffic since late February 2026 following US and Israeli air strikes[1]. This market sits at 0% YES on Polymarket, priced in USDC on the Polygon network, where conditional tokens reflect the crowd’s belief that a formal kinetic strike or seizure of a commercial vessel has not yet been explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic[1][2]. Historical precedent shows Iran has seized commercial ships shortly after ceasefire extensions, yet the current resolution criteria demand explicit attribution or confirmation from Iranian territory, which proxy actions by Houthis or Hezbollah do not satisfy[6].

Traders must monitor CENTCOM strike announcements and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi’s statements regarding the June 17 Memorandum of Understanding, as recent drone attacks on commercial vessels have already triggered renewed US military action[2][5]. The settlement window ends in August 2026, and any escalation in drone or missile use against commercial ships transiting the strait could shift conditional token pricing if Iran explicitly claims responsibility[1][3]. Watch for official Iranian declarations confirming attacks on specific commercial vessels, such as the M/V Ever Lovely incident in June 2025, which previously prompted US strikes and demonstrated Iran’s willingness to target commercial shipping directly[4].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Qué Es. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.