Pronóstico: US-Iran ceasefire continues through 2026?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket has this contract priced at 97% YES, implying traders see the ceasefire as holding through the settlement window and no qualifying US strike on Iran by 30 September. On Polymarket, that view is backed with USDC on Polygon through conditional tokens, so the market price reflects live positioning rather than a broad opinion poll.

The backdrop is a fragile truce rather than a settled peace. Reuters reported on 12–18 August that Iran said there were no talks on extending the interim ceasefire, while also warning it would escalate if Washington failed to honour the deal within weeks[1][2]. That is the kind of history traders are weighing: the earlier temporary pause, the breakdown in implementation, and repeated threats tied to the Strait of Hormuz. When ceasefires have rested on narrow, time-bound arrangements, markets often treat the headline risk as real but still assign a high survival chance until the final days of the deadline.

The main catalysts are official statements from Washington and Tehran, any notice of renewed talks, and any military signalling around US assets in the region. Reuters also reported on 18 August that Donald Trump said no talks were scheduled, while Iran’s parliament speaker outlined conditions for US compliance[3]. For a Polymarket user, the practical watchlist is simple: any change in strike posture, force protection alerts, or a sudden collapse in diplomatic language would matter more than routine rhetoric. As the 30 September expiry approaches, the market will stay sensitive to whether either side confirms continuity or starts framing the ceasefire as ended.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Qué Es. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Qué Es trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.