Pronóstico: US charges Hormuz fees by 2026?

Platform comparison

Market context

The Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly 20% of global oil passes daily, remains strategically vital to US interests yet administratively unclaimed. This market asks whether the United States will extract direct payment from shipping entities or foreign governments for transit rights or protection services through the waterway by end-2026. On Polymarket, traders currently price this scenario at 12% probability, valuing YES tokens at roughly $0.12 per USDC staked on Polygon—a reflection of deep scepticism that Washington will formalise what has historically remained implicit in its military presence.

Precedent for toll-like arrangements exists but remains limited. The US has collected payments for canal operations (Panama Canal) and military basing rights globally, yet the Strait of Hormuz differs: it is international waters where the US lacks sovereign authority. Previous administrations have resisted formal toll schemes, viewing them as diplomatically costly and operationally complex. However, the Trump administration's 2020 rhetoric around burden-sharing and cost recovery shifted the conversation; any new administration pursuing similar fiscal logic could revive the idea, though implementation would require either bilateral agreements with major shipping nations or a unilateral declaration backed by naval enforcement.

Traders should monitor statements from the State Department and Pentagon regarding maritime security funding, any formal proposals in Congressional defence bills, and reactions from major shipping hubs (Singapore, Rotterdam) and oil-importing allies (Japan, South Korea, EU members). Recent geopolitical tension in the region, including Houthi attacks on vessels, has elevated discussion of protection costs but has not yet crystallised into a formal US fee structure. The 12% probability reflects the gap between rhetorical interest and political-legal feasibility within the settlement window.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Qué Es, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.