Pronóstico: US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket’s **0% YES** pricing means the contract is effectively treating a signed final nuclear deal as absent for now, with the conditional tokens on Polygon still anchored to whether a qualifying written instrument is adopted by 11:59 PM ET on 31 August 2026. In plain language, the real-world question is whether the June framework between Washington and Tehran turns into a formal, mutually adopted deal before the deadline, not whether talks continue.

The comparison set is mixed: in February, both sides were still only agreeing on “guiding principles” and pushing detailed drafts into later rounds, which is the sort of intermediate progress that often fails to bridge the gap to a binding text.[8][11] By mid-June, however, mediators said the two sides had signed a 14-point MoU and agreed a 60-day roadmap towards a final deal, while Reuters reported technical talks then moved on to implementation issues such as the Strait of Hormuz and frozen funds rather than a completed settlement.[1][6][12] That pattern suggests a market like this can stay pinned low until a formal signature or other qualifying adoption is confirmed.

For traders watching the on-chain market, the catalysts are concrete: any joint statement from the US, Iran, Qatar or Pakistan; confirmation that negotiators have moved from technical talks to a signed text; and whether the final instrument includes the required signature or formal adoption language. Reuters noted on 1 July that talks in Doha were still focused on unresolved implementation details, while the June reporting also flagged continued disputes over inspectors, sanctions relief and uranium stockpiles.[6][7] Until one of those pieces is closed in writing, the market is likely to remain driven by headline risk rather than a near-term settlement case.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Pronóstico: US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Qué Es, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Qué Es. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Qué Es trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.