Pronóstico: US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?

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Market context

The United States and Iran have announced a 60-day cease-fire and a framework to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, yet the pivotal issue of Iran’s nuclear programme remains unresolved[1]. This initial memorandum of understanding is not a final peace agreement, leaving critical questions about uranium enrichment levels and stockpile disposal unanswered[3]. Traders on Polymarket see the contract priced at 0% YES today, reflecting the stark reality that no qualifying written diplomatic instrument for a “final deal” has been signed or adopted[1]. The on-chain mechanics utilise USDC on the Polygon network, where conditional tokens determine settlement based strictly on the mutual signing of a formal instrument by the specified date[2].

Historically, similar assurances from Iran have proven fragile; the 2015 JCPOA commitment to never pursue nuclear weapons was offered multiple times before being undermined, mirroring the current lack of enforcement mechanisms in the 2026 MOU[1]. The 2015 deal capped enrichment at 3.67% and shipped out 96% of stockpiles, whereas the new framework demands a complete dismantling with no agreed enforcement yet decided[3]. This gap between diplomatic rhetoric and verifiable action explains why the market assigns zero probability to a final deal emerging within the 60-day window ending August 2026.

Traders must monitor the technical working groups formed to address sanctions relief and nuclear activities, as divergences on frozen assets and IAEA inspector access remain critical hurdles[4]. Iranian state media claims of a $12 billion asset release have not been confirmed by Washington, while Iranian officials rejected Vice President JD Vance’s assertion that inspectors will return[4]. Technical talks are expected to resume next week under Pakistani mediation, but unresolved issues regarding enriched uranium reserves and sanctions specifics continue to stall progress[4][7]. Any announcement confirming the mutual signing of a final instrument before the settlement window closes would be the sole catalyst for a price shift.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Pronóstico: US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at PolyGram — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.