Pronóstico: Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?

Platform comparison

Market context

The Islamic Republic of Iran’s ruling regime remains firmly in power, with no credible signs of overthrow, collapse, or loss of de facto governance by the end of June 2026. Despite decades of internal dissent and recent massive protests, the core structures—including the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, and IRGC control under clerical authority—continue to operate without interruption.

Historically, prediction markets have consistently underestimated regime resilience in brittle but fiercely defended states like Iran, North Korea, and Cuba, where unified opposition and external backing are absent. Similar contracts on Polymarket, such as “Will the Iranian regime fall before August?”, resolved to “No” with 0% implied probability, reinforcing the crowd’s view that structural collapse is unlikely without a sectarian-led internal rebellion or foreign intervention [3][6].

Traders should monitor upcoming announcements from the Supreme Leader’s office, Guardian Council meeting schedules, and any shifts in IRGC command structures. Recent reporting from Polymarket confirms the market still assigns 0% chance to regime collapse, citing that the regime “still holds power” despite 40,000 killed in protests [8]. On-chain, conditional tokens priced in USDC on Polygon reflect this consensus, with “Yes” shares trading near 0.2¢ and liquidity concentrated on the “No” side [1]. No new catalysts have emerged to alter this trajectory in the final five days before settlement.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.