Pronóstico: Will Super Typhoon Dolphin hit Japan?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket is pricing this contract at **100% YES**, which means the market is treating a Japanese landfall by Super Typhoon Dolphin as a virtual certainty. On Polymarket, the position is tokenised on Polygon and settled in USDC through conditional tokens, so the only thing that matters is whether the storm’s centre crosses Japanese coastline before the settlement cut-off.

That reading is being driven by the storm’s actual track so far: recent reporting says Dolphin has already affected the Ogasawara Islands and is being watched for a possible hit on Okinawa and the Ryukyu chain, while earlier forecast guidance still pointed broadly towards Japan’s islands. Al Jazeera reported on 4 August that Okinawa residents were being urged to prepare for severe weather and that landfall on Okinawa was expected that week, while other trackers noted uncertainty in the longer-range path and some model spread toward the East China Sea rather than deeper into mainland Japan.[4][2][12] For a market resolved by a physical coastline crossing, that distinction matters: brushing offshore waters is not enough, but a centre crossing anywhere in Japanese territory, including Okinawa or the Ryukyus, settles the contract YES.[4]

The key catalysts are the Japan Meteorological Agency advisories, which the market description says are the primary resolution reference, plus any credible news confirmation that Dolphin’s centre has come ashore. Traders should watch the timing of each JMA position update, because a single advisory can move the implied path materially if it places the storm over land or keeps it just offshore. Forecast changes can also come quickly if the subtropical ridge steering the cyclone shifts, so ensemble runs and official local warnings around Okinawa, Amami, and the main islands remain the most relevant dependencies for the next move.[17][15][10]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Pronóstico: Will Super Typhoon Dolphin hit Japan? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Qué Es, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.