Pronóstico: GPT-5.6 released by 2026?

Platform comparison

Market context

OpenAI has announced the GPT-5.6 family on 26 June 2026, yet the model remains unavailable to the general public via ChatGPT, with only a limited API and Codex preview for select trusted partners. Despite the official launch, no general-availability date has been confirmed, and the current crowd-implied probability of a public release before 31 July 2026 sits at 0% on Polymarket, reflecting deep scepticism about immediate accessibility.

Historically, OpenAI’s rollout patterns mirror this phase: GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2 saw a similar limited preview before broader access, but the gap often stretched weeks. The current 0% pricing aligns with past cases where preview-only models were withheld from public consumers for extended periods, suggesting traders should treat the absence of a GA date as a strong signal against near-term resolution.

Key catalysts include OpenAI’s stated plan to expand availability “in the coming weeks” and potential announcements tied to paying ChatGPT users or enterprise API access. A recent Mixed News report notes that broader access for ChatGPT, Codex, and API users is expected soon, though no exact date is confirmed. Traders should monitor official OpenAI channels for rollout updates, as the public launch hinges on completing remaining review and deployment work.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Pronóstico: GPT-5.6 released by 2026? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Qué Es. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.