Pronóstico: Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by 2026?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The underlying real-world event is whether Israel and Iran will sign a permanent peace deal ending all military hostilities by May 2026. On Polymarket today, this contract trades at 0% YES, reflecting the near-total absence of on-chain liquidity for a positive outcome. The market prices in the stark reality that no such agreement exists, with conditional tokens on the Polygon network showing zero USDC backing for a “Yes” resolution.

Historically, comparable cases like the 2026 US–Iran ceasefire memorandum highlight that preliminary deals often exclude Israel’s direct involvement. While the US and Iran agreed to an “immediate and permanent cessation of military operations” including on the Israel–Hezbollah front, Israel has explicitly refused to withdraw forces from Lebanon and continues strikes on Hezbollah, as reported by the BBC [1]. This disconnect frames the 0% probability: a US–Iran deal does not equate to an Israel–Iran peace treaty, and no precedent shows Israel and Iran negotiating directly under such conditions.

Traders should watch for any announcement of direct Israel–Iran talks, scheduled diplomatic summits involving both nations, or shifts in Israel’s Lebanon policy. A critical dependency is whether the US can pressure Israel to halt operations in Lebanon, a condition mentioned in the US–Iran memorandum [3]. Recent news from Al Jazeera confirms the US–Iran deal is set for formal signing on Friday, but it excludes Israel’s missile programme and resistance group support from negotiations [5]. Without a breakthrough on these fronts, the probability remains effectively zero.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Pronóstico: Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by 2026? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at PolyGram — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.