Pronóstico: Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

Platform comparison

Market context

The Strait of Hormuz remains a critical chokepoint where daily transit calls have plummeted to roughly thirteen, far below the sixty needed for this market to resolve "Yes". With the crowd-implied probability sitting at just 5%, the on-chain contract on Polymarket prices this outcome as highly unlikely, reflecting the severe disruption caused by ongoing regional conflict. Traders using USDC on the Polygon network are betting against a rapid return to normalcy, as conditional tokens lock in the current pessimism regarding shipping flows.

Historically, the 7-day moving average of transit calls has not reached sixty since early 2019, a period before the current era of GPS jamming and AIS spoofing that now forces vessels to go dark [2]. Recent data from June 2026 shows the average hovering near thirteen, with daily calls occasionally dropping to zero, indicating a complete breakdown in reported traffic rather than a temporary dip [3][5]. This prolonged stagnation frames the 5% probability as a rational assessment of a chokepoint that has not functioned normally for years.

Key catalysts for traders include any official announcements regarding the cessation of conflict or the deployment of new maritime security measures that could restore AIS reliability. The IMF PortWatch dashboard remains the sole dependency for resolution, and any shift in its reporting methodology or a sudden surge in tanker traffic would be the primary signal to watch [2]. Recent reports confirm that trade disruption risks remain elevated, with no immediate signs of the traffic volume rebounding to the required threshold before the June 2026 settlement window closes [4]. Without a dramatic geopolitical shift, the market is poised to resolve "No".

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Pronóstico: Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.