Pronóstico: Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?

Platform comparison

Market context

The Second Coming of Jesus Christ—a theological event central to Christian eschatology—is currently priced at 2% on Polymarket's USDC/Polygon conditional token market, expiring 31 December 2026. This implies traders assess an extraordinarily low probability of Christ's return within the next two years. The market structure allows positions to be held as ERC-1155 conditional tokens, settling against a consensus of credible news sources rather than any single religious authority or institutional declaration.

Historical precedent shapes how markets price apocalyptic claims. Numerous predicted return dates—including those in 1844 (William Miller), 1988 (Edgar Whisenant), and 2000 (Y2K-adjacent theology)—passed without incident, establishing a pattern that specific near-term Second Coming predictions consistently fail to materialise. The 2% probability reflects this empirical track record: whilst Christian theology permits Christ's imminent return at any moment, actual market participants weight centuries of unfulfilled predictions heavily. No major Christian denomination currently teaches an expected return before 2027, and mainstream theological scholarship treats specific date-setting as theologically suspect.

Catalysts for this market remain sparse and largely dependent on extraordinary claims gaining mainstream credibility. A widely-documented, globally-witnessed event interpreted by credible sources as the Second Coming would be required to trigger a "Yes" resolution. Current geopolitical instability, religious revival movements, or astronomical phenomena occasionally generate eschatological commentary, but none have substantially shifted market pricing. Traders monitoring this contract should watch for any coordinated claims from major religious institutions or unprecedented global events that credible news sources might frame within apocalyptic frameworks—though the 2% price suggests the market assigns minimal probability to such developments materialising before year-end 2026.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Qué Es, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Qué Es. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Qué Es trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.