Pronóstico: Iran leader end of 2026?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of Iran’s head of state on 31 December 2026 remains uncertain, with the market currently pricing a 1% chance that no single person meets the stringent “de facto” criteria. This low probability reflects the intense power struggle following Ali Khamenei’s assassination in February 2026, where formal succession has not guaranteed effective control.

Historical precedents in Iran show that constitutional titles often diverge from actual governing authority, particularly during leadership transitions. After Khomeini’s death in 1989, the Supreme Leader’s role was consolidated only after years of internal negotiation. Similarly, Mojtaba Khamenei holds the formal title of Supreme Leader since March 2026, yet credible reports indicate the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) now commands primary operational authority, casting doubt on his de facto status [1][9].

Traders should monitor upcoming announcements from the Assembly of Experts, scheduled IRGC leadership meetings, and any public appearances by Mojtaba Khamenei that signal a shift in power dynamics. Recent reporting from Iran International confirms the IRGC’s de facto takeover of key state functions as of April 2026, a critical dependency for resolving this market [9]. Watch for official statements on whether Mojtaba will consolidate control or remain a symbolic figurehead by year-end.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.