Pronóstico: Mojtaba Khamenei public appearance by 2026?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket has this contract at **0% YES**, which makes sense for a token that settles only if authentic, in-period photo or video of Mojtaba Khamenei is released before 30 April 2026. On Polymarket, traders buy and sell USDC-backed conditional tokens on Polygon, so a 0% print implies the market is treating the evidentiary bar as almost impossible rather than merely unlikely.

The reference point is that Khamenei has repeatedly stayed out of sight since his appointment, with Reuters reporting on 31 March that he was in Iran but avoiding public engagements, and again on 11 April that he had suffered severe facial and leg injuries and no photo, video or audio had been published since the air attack.[1][16] Reuters also said one source expected images might emerge only within one or two months, while other reporting in late April still described him as “nowhere to be seen”, with state-linked statements substituting for a direct appearance.[9][16] That history explains why traders have kept the contract pinned at the floor: the market is not pricing the office itself, but the release of verifiable visual evidence inside the window.

For the next leg, a trader should watch for any state-media timetable, funeral or memorial attendance, or an unscripted broadcast that produces fresh footage rather than recycled stills. Reuters noted on 11 April that Khamenei’s inner circle would only allow him to emerge when health and security conditions permit, so any official security update or sudden announcement from Iranian outlets would be the main catalyst.[16] Under Polymarket’s resolution rules, a clip or photograph must be newly taken and released within the market period; archived material, staged reproductions, digitally altered imagery or posthumous releases do not count.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Qué Es. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.